CBCRE 2026 Q3 Market Report

The third quarter of 2026 carried the momentum of spring into a busy Vermont summer. Closings rose year over year in every market we track, with Stowe single-family, Stowe condo, Lamoille County, and Waterbury sales all moving higher. Just as notably, the pace picked up where it matters most: median days on market fell in Stowe and across Lamoille County, a welcome shift after a more deliberate first half of the year. Much of this movement was typical of our summer market, when buyer traffic peaks and well-prepared listings move quickly. In Stowe, we also believe activity was somewhat influenced by the town’s new short-term rental license cap, which took effect on September 15, as some buyers worked to secure properties and licenses ahead of the deadline. Still, a more active quarter does not mean a frictionless one. Pressures both inside and outside our market, from higher mortgage rates and rising carrying costs to new regulations and a market working down from COVID-era highs, point to a market that is still finding its overall balance, with valuations realigning in several segments. For sellers, this is a market rewarding homes that launch well-priced and well-presented. For buyers, more inventory and room to negotiate are creating real choice heading into the fall and winter seasons. Want to see how the market has shifted? Compare with our Q2 2026 Stowe area market report.

Stowe’s single-family home market was active and efficient this summer. Sales rose 10.71% year over year (31 closings vs 28), and new listings climbed 23.53% (42 vs 34), giving buyers searching for homes for sale in Stowe VT noticeably more selection than last summer. The average sold price rose 4.23%, while the median sold price eased 5.38% year over year, reflecting a broader spread of sales across price points and continued pressure on pricing in the most active part of the market.

In real numbers, the average Stowe home sales price was $1.414M+, and the median was $1.1M. Homes moved faster this quarter after a slower spring, with average days on market at 55 days (down 14.06%) and median DOM at just 25 days (down 19.35%). The list-to-sell ratio held firm, up 0.54%, though as the price point breakdown below shows, many sellers reached that final list price through adjustments along the way. Curious where your property fits? Start with a free home valuation.

A Closer Look by Price Point: A Market Finding Its Balance

While Q3 was more active than the year before, pressures both in and outside the market show a Stowe market still trying to find its overall balance. The under $1.5 million segment saw more sales than any other part of the market, with 20 total sales, and almost all involved price adjustments or negotiation to reach the final sale price. This segment was most impacted by rising mortgage rates, higher carrying costs, new regulations, and a market working down from COVID-era highs. Together, these pressures point to a valuation realignment.

At the upper end, the luxury segment held steady, with four sales between $2 million and $3 million, the same as in 2025. The ultra-luxury segment saw more activity than a year ago, with three sales compared to one in Q3 2025, but those sales also moved from their original list price or had value added to reach the final sale price. As we move into Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, we will see how much local, national, and global pressures materialize in our market.

Condo Sales in Stowe, VT

Stowe condos continued the buyer-friendly trend we highlighted last quarter. Sales rose 16.67% year over year (21 closings vs 18), while new listings held flat at 30, keeping selection consistent with last summer. Pricing continued to normalize: the average sold price declined 36.84%, and the median sold price declined 46.67% year over year, again reflecting a shift toward more attainable units rather than weakness across the segment. Last summer’s numbers were shaped by an unusual concentration of premium condo sales, which makes the year-over-year comparison look steeper than the market feels on the ground.

For Q3 2026, the average Stowe condo sales price was $794K+, and the median was $570K+. Average days on market ran longer than last year at 87 days, while the median DOM improved 8.82% to 31 days, suggesting most condos are selling at a healthy pace while a handful of longer-marketed units are pulling the average up. The list-to-sell ratio was essentially flat, down just 0.17%. For buyers, Stowe condos remain one of the market’s most compelling entry points. For sellers, realistic pricing is the difference between a quick sale and a long wait.

The Stowe Short-Term Rental Cap: What It Means for the Market

On September 15, 2026, Stowe’s new short-term rental (STR) ordinance took effect, capping STR licenses at 850 town-wide. Owners who registered before that date are grandfathered and can keep renewing, but licenses don’t transfer with the property in a typical sale. Buyers must secure their own license. There are currently just under 2,000 registrations, so the number of licenses is unlikely to drop to 850 anytime soon. If it does, the town will award new licenses through an annual lottery. In the short term, the town will release 20 licenses a year in the 2027/28 and 2028/29 cycles if the number of licenses does not fall below the cap. Properties within the Spruce Peak, Topnotch, and Trapp Family Lodge resort PUDs are exempt, and full-time residents can apply for a separate Homestead license. For a full breakdown, read our guide to the Stowe, VT, short-term rental ordinance.

We do not yet know what the full impact of the cap will be, and we expect that picture to come into focus over the next year. We do know it will affect the market. Many buyers, particularly in the condo and second-home segments, have historically counted on short-term rental income to help offset their carrying costs. For buyers purchasing outside the exempt resort communities, that option is no longer a given, which may shift how some buyers approach Stowe, which properties they target, and how they evaluate value. We will be watching closely and reporting on what we see each quarter.

Summer brought the strongest quarter of the year to the towns outside Stowe, with 62 single-family homes sold in Lamoille County. This was a significant jump from the spring, with an average sales price of $586K+ and a median sales price of $460K. Homes moved quickly: average DOM was 42 days, and the median DOM was just 15 days, meaning well-priced homes in these value-oriented towns typically went under contract within about two weeks.

Countywide (including Stowe), the single-family market strengthened on nearly every measure. Sales rose 16.46%, new listings increased 8.94%, and the median sold price climbed 6.09% year over year. Median days on market improved 20%, and the list-to-sell ratio held essentially steady.

The headline this quarter is Morristown’s rebound. After cooling in the spring, Morristown single-family sales jumped 57% (22 vs 14) with a 15-day median DOM and pricing edging higher to a $468K median, making it the busiest town in the county outside Stowe. Elmore also had a standout summer, with sales more than doubling and the median price rising 19% to $720K. In Lamoille North, the frenzied single-digit timelines of the spring settled into a more sustainable rhythm. Hyde Park remained one of the fastest and strongest markets in the county, with a 14-day median DOM and the median price up 17% to $535K, supported by a 63% jump in new listings. Johnson doubled its sales as more attainable homes changed hands, and Cambridge saw pace and pricing ease after a very competitive spring. The demand we noted last quarter from buyers searching beyond the Burlington area appears to be broadening across the county rather than concentrating in a few towns. Browse current Morrisville homes for sale to see what is available now.

Local highlights (Single-Family, YoY):

• Morristown: Sales up 57% (22 vs 14), new listings up 15% (30 vs 26), median price up 3% to $468K, median DOM 15 days (up from 14).

• Hyde Park: Sales down 17% (5 vs 6), new listings up 63% (13 vs 8), median price up 17% to $535K, median DOM steady at 14 days.

• Johnson: Sales up 100% (8 vs 4), new listings up 8% (14 vs 13), median price down 17% to $323K, median DOM up to 28 days.

• Cambridge: Sales down 17% (10 vs 12), new listings down 20% (12 vs 15), median price down 14% to $409K, median DOM up to 20 days.

• Elmore: Sales up 125% (9 vs 4), new listings down 20% (8 vs 10), median price up 19% to $720K, median DOM up to 18 days.

Waterbury kept its volume streak going. Single-family home sales rose 43.75% year over year (23 vs 16), following last quarter’s doubling, and new listings climbed 35.29%, giving buyers considerably more to choose from than last summer. Demand for Waterbury’s livability, dining scene, and easy access to both Stowe and Burlington shows no sign of slowing.

Pricing moved toward more accessible levels. The average sales price declined 7.96%, and the median declined 23.35% year over year, driven by more sales at entry and mid-level price points. In real numbers, the average Waterbury home sales price was $712K+, and the median was $529K.

Days on market rose sharply in percentage terms, with average DOM up 204.76% and median DOM up 162.50%, but that comparison is against last summer’s exceptionally fast pace. In absolute terms, Waterbury remains quick: 52 days on average and just 18 days at the median. The list-to-sell ratio eased slightly, down 1.03%. With rising sales and fresh inventory, Waterbury is one of the most active markets in our coverage area. Explore current Waterbury homes for sale to see this market in action.

Across Stowe, Lamoille County, and Waterbury, Q3 2026 was defined by rising sales and quicker timelines. Closings increased year over year in every market we track, and median days on market came in at 25 days in Stowe, 15 days in Lamoille County outside Stowe, and 18 days in Waterbury. Much of this was the natural rhythm of our summer market, and in Stowe, the September 15 short-term rental cap likely added some urgency as buyers moved to get ahead of the deadline.

Beneath the activity, though, this is a market working to find its overall balance. In Stowe, the under $1.5 million segment led all price points with 20 sales, and almost all of them required price adjustments or negotiation to reach the final sales price. Higher mortgage rates, rising carrying costs, new regulations, and a market working down from COVID-era highs all point to a realignment of valuation, felt most in this segment. The $2 to $3 million luxury segment held steady with four sales, matching 2025, and the ultra-luxury segment grew from one sale to three, though those sales also saw movement from original list price or added value to get to the closing table.

Looking forward, the STR cap is one of the variables we are watching most closely. Its full impact is not yet known and will unfold over the next year, but it will shape the Stowe market, particularly for buyers who would have relied on short-term rental income to offset their costs and no longer have that option outside the exempt resort communities. As we move into Q4 and Q1 2027, we will see how much of the pressures building locally, nationally, and globally will be realized within our market. The throughline from earlier in the year still holds: this market rewards homes that are priced, prepared, and presented well from the first day on the market.

If you would like a tailored interpretation of what these trends mean for your property, or a strategy for buying or selling this fall and into 2027, reach out anytime. We are happy to share a pricing perspective, a market positioning plan, or a custom search strategy based on your goals.